MECHANICSTHE MARKET'S MACHINERY
Supportive.DIAL 55.2 / 100
The latest full model shows modest mechanical support: dealers dampen swings and stock selection is rewarded, while trend-followers lean against the tape.
FLOW OFFFRAGILENEUTRALSUPPORTIVESTRONG BID
TODAY 55.2
Dealers are absorbing volatility, not amplifying itHELPING
The safety margin above the point where they'd switch sidesTHINNER THAN USUAL
Winners and losers are being separated aggressivelyREWARDING SELECTION
Trend-following fundsLEANING AGAINST
LIQUIDITYTHE PLUMBING
Neutral.DIAL 54.2 / 100 — WAS SUPPORTIVE YESTERDAY
The latest full model shows liquidity neutral after its tailwind faded. Belief carried more of the valuation load.
CONTRACTIONTIGHTENINGNEUTRALSUPPORTIVEEXPANSION
TODAY 54.2
Global money supplyEXPANDING MILDLY
Credit marketsFUNCTIONING NORMALLY
The dollar and overseas fundingMILD HEADWIND
Direction of travelFADING, NOT FAILING
INNOVATIONMARKET LEADERSHIP
Neutral.DIAL 45.0 / 100 — ON THE COOLING LINE
AI leadership is resting, not leading. Position is neutral while momentum remains warm. This dial decides whether leadership resumes or cools.
WINTERCOOLINGNEUTRALCONSTRUCTIVEACCELERATION
TODAY 45.0
Semiconductors vs. old-economy industrialsRESTING
Mega-cap AI platforms vs. the broad marketRESTING
Frontier & private-innovation proxiesQUIET
Leadership momentum (the velocity dial)STILL WARM
VELOCITYHOW FAST THE FUTURE ARRIVES
Normal.+0.65 TURNS ON A ±8 SCALE
Velocity asks whether evidence is arriving fast enough. The latest full model priced +6.81 turns of future against +0.65 turns of evidence.
CONTRACTIONHEADWINDNORMALEXPANSIONEUPHORIAPLATFORM
TODAY +0.65
Factory & industrial output — the swing variable of this cycleACCELERATING
Innovation leadership momentumWARM
Market machinery trendMILDLY IMPROVING
Liquidity trendDETERIORATING
THE HISTORICAL STATE LAB
Extremes have a memory. Click any state to inspect it.
Market-state fingerprints place depression, adoption, mania and excess on one comparable map.
STATE LIBRARYSELECT A REGIME
CURRENT · FULL MODEL 07/16
EARLY AI CYCLE
+6.81IMPLIED NARRATIVE TURNS
STATEEARLY AI CYCLE
ANALOG2026 AI CYCLE
VALUATION CONDITIONPLATFORM PREMIUM
PRIMARY LESSONBELIEF LEADS. PRODUCTIVITY MUST CATCH UP.
AI is being capitalized before its full productivity dividend. The platform can be real while timing remains vulnerable.
"The signal finds what and when. Why arrives later."
IMPLIED NARRATIVE STATE MACHINE−10 TO +12 TURNS
DEPRESSION≤ −8CAPITULATION−8 / −6FEAR−6 / −4SKEPTICISM−4 / −2NORMAL−2 / +2OPTIMISM+2 / +4EXPANSION+4 / +6EARLY AI+6 / +8MANIA+8 / +10EXCESS> +10